The pastoral economy of the Central African Republic (CAR) adopted the seasonal mobility that means transhumance in livestock and the shift from farming to farming. Cross-border pastoralism is practiced in the Central African Republic by Cameroonians, Chadians,
Sudanese and South Sudanese pastoral groups. This activity faces challenges ranging from cattle theft, rancher problems and activities of armed groups leading to incidents, sometimes fatal.
Publicly available data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) was analyzed to identify locations where a transhumance incident occurred and sub-prefectures subject to access restrictions and food insecurity due to transhumance incidents. Hotspot analysis provides a way to view the relationship between features and show whether high or low values are spatially clustered. In summary, the analysis groups sub-prefectures where similarly high (hot) or low (cold) incident counts are found in a cluster. Hotspot analysis is therefore a fundamental form of incident prediction, an analytical technique that can be used to identify where management can target physical accessibility limitations, humanitarian assistance, and resources for transhumance conflict resolution mechanisms.
From 2001 to 2021 (20 years) a total of 172 transhumance incidents with 739 fatalities were registered. The results of the hotspot analysis show 5 sub-prefectures as migratory hotspots with a 99% confidence level. These include Batangafo, Kabo, Kaga Bandoro, Markounda and Bouca.
The remaining sub-prefectures of the hotspots are in the northern parts of the country, particularly the northwest, northeast, and southeast, where the hotspots vary between 90 percent and 95 percent confidence levels. The sub-prefectures in the south, southwest, east, and southeast of the country range from no statistical significance to cold spots with confidence levels of 90, 95, and 99 percent.
After an overlay of migratory animal hotspots with IPC results from September 2021-March 2022, ENSA 2021, Cropland Transition 2021 and Safety Roads Classification February 2022, the results show 18 sub-prefectures in hotspot areas with challenging conditions ranging from high food insecurity to roads with high Street level risks. For immediate and long-term initiatives on food security, physical access, asset creation and conflict resolution mechanisms for transhumance, the 18 sub-prefectures of Amada-Gaza, Abba, Bouar, Koui, Bocaranga, Bossangoa, Bouca, Batangafo, Markounda, Kabo, Kaga -Bandoro, Dekoa , Bamingui, Bakala, Ippy, Bria, Ndélé and Birao have been ranked as Priority 1 as they face many challenges including food insecurity and high risk routes and are located in transhumance hotspots. These 18 sub-prefectures have a total population of approximately 1,090,509.
Bozoum is a Priority 2 sub-prefecture as it has medium challenges and a population of approximately 67,146.
The remaining 14 sub-prefectures of Baboua, Bossemptélé, Paoua, Ngaoundaye, Nana Bakassa, Nanga Boguila, Bogangolo, Mala, Mbres, Ouadda and Ouanda Djalle have priority 3 as they face fewer challenges, particularly in the area of food security. All Priority 3 areas have a population of approximately 649,397. Approximately 1,807,052 people live in the main program areas.
In total, around 1,807,052 people live in migratory animal hotspots in these sub-prefectures.
The results of this analysis will be used to formulate data-driven programs and policies for early warning and emergency preparedness, and to align food security, physical security, asset and livelihood creation initiatives, and transhumance conflict resolution mechanisms.
Available resources are therefore used in a targeted manner depending on the priority level.